The Green Thing

[Smitty37]

I love numbers.

Looking at chart 8.1

If you chart the increases year over year as a percentage, you'll notice that population growth is fairly steady at between 1 and 2 percent every year.

The increase in the number of cars in operation though various from as little as .04% in 1992 and .62% in 2008 to a high of 7.08% in 1951. In fact the 10 highest years of increase are 1951, 1955, 1953, 1956, 1959, 1973, 1965, 1972, 1954, and 1969 in that order.

Oddly enough, those same years are some of the highest percentages in miles driven with 1955, 1951, 1972, 1971, 1953, 1976, 1988, 1959, 1968, and 1978. The highest 1955 at 7.77% and the lowest being 2008 with negative 1.94%. The miles driven looking to have more to do with A) fuel prices (big dip in 2008 and 1974) and B) the economy (1979 and 80, 2001, etc).

If you love numbers you know tha trends are not shown by specific year to year comparisons There are still around 3 times as many cars per capata now as there were in 1950 and still 3 times as many miles driven per capata.

I think it follows the build up of the Interstate System...keeping in mind there would be a natural lag between building a road and the building up of businesses and homes around the interchanges and exits.

There does seem to be a plateau in miles driven per capata for the last 6 or 7 years. I can attribute that to several things - the current recession started around 2007/8 and, in my opinion, is the cause of the plateau hanging on rather than just being a one or two year thing.

It also could easily be that after more than 50 years we have begun nearing the saturation point in miles driven per capata, given that the increase was coinciding with huge increases in air travel as well. I know for sure that in 1950 we would have had nothing like the thousands of airliners in the air at any given moment that we have today.

Another thing that can have an effect on miles driven per capata is the aging population. The baby boomers started reaching their sixties in 2006...older people drive neither as often or as far as young folks so as the population ages we might see the miles driven per capata, level off or even trend down.

 

[Russianwolf]

Another thing that can have an effect on miles driven per capata is the aging population. The baby boomers started reaching their sixties in 2006...older people drive neither as often or as far as young folks so as the population ages we might see the miles driven per capata, level off or even trend down.

Don't know if I can buy that. Retirees like their RVs and use them to travel great distances. I keep an eye on my neighbor's house more than they are home. Out galavanting in their Travel Trailer.

granted this recession has taken a bite out of RVing for the time being, but......

 

[Phunky_2003]

Another thing that can have an effect on miles driven per capata is the aging population. The baby boomers started reaching their sixties in 2006...older people drive neither as often or as far as young folks so as the population ages we might see the miles driven per capata, level off or even trend down.

Don't know if I can buy that. Retirees like their RVs and use them to travel great distances. I keep an eye on my neighbor's house more than they are home. Out galavanting in their Travel Trailer.

granted this recession has taken a bite out of RVing for the time being, but......

My mom is in her 60's and she far out drives me. That woman got more get up and go than most people half her age. Makes me want to take a nap thinking about it.

And I just looked outside I had to count. We have 7 vehicles....but I still only drive them one at a time.

 

[Russianwolf]

oh, there are also more than 3 times as many licensed drivers. From 62k in 1950 to 208k in 2008.


And the number of households also increased nearly three times in that time span.

 

[Smitty37]

Another thing that can have an effect on miles driven per capata is the aging population. The baby boomers started reaching their sixties in 2006...older people drive neither as often or as far as young folks so as the population ages we might see the miles driven per capata, level off or even trend down.

Don't know if I can buy that. Retirees like their RVs and use them to travel great distances. I keep an eye on my neighbor's house more than they are home. Out galavanting in their Travel Trailer.

granted this recession has taken a bite out of RVing for the time being, but......

There is a chart here ( http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/bar8.htm )that shows miles dirven by age. Senior Citizen drivers drive less. I don't make these things up ---- honest I don't.

 

[Smitty37]

oh, there are also more than 3 times as many licensed drivers. From 62k in 1950 to 208k in 2008.


And the number of households also increased nearly three times in that time span.

Right on both counts.

Into the 50s when most people had one or no cars many women did not bother to get a drivers license. That was changing as I went through my teen years and I suspect by the late 50s or early 60s most girls and boys were getting drivers licenses as soon as they could. Also, I knew more than a few adult men who had never owned a car and never had a drivers license - today I know hardly any adult men or women who don't and most of those used to have a driver's license that they had to give up because of health or vision problems.


Yes there are more and much smaller households now than in the 50s. Partly because of the depression followed by WWII. Extended families of grand parants, parants and children were common - not so today.

 

[Smitty37]

Another thing that can have an effect on miles driven per capata is the aging population. The baby boomers started reaching their sixties in 2006...older people drive neither as often or as far as young folks so as the population ages we might see the miles driven per capata, level off or even trend down.

Don't know if I can buy that. Retirees like their RVs and use them to travel great distances. I keep an eye on my neighbor's house more than they are home. Out galavanting in their Travel Trailer.

granted this recession has taken a bite out of RVing for the time being, but......

My mom is in her 60's and she far out drives me. That woman got more get up and go than most people half her age. Makes me want to take a nap thinking about it.

And I just looked outside I had to count. We have 7 vehicles....but I still only drive them one at a time.

My wife (67) might drive more than you do too but I'll give odds that I don't. A lot of her driving is taxiing a couple of other older women who no longer drive.

At one time, we had 7 licensed drivers and 6 vehicles on the road too but that proves nothing regarding national averages.

 

[Russianwolf]

Another thing that can have an effect on miles driven per capata is the aging population. The baby boomers started reaching their sixties in 2006...older people drive neither as often or as far as young folks so as the population ages we might see the miles driven per capata, level off or even trend down.

Don't know if I can buy that. Retirees like their RVs and use them to travel great distances. I keep an eye on my neighbor's house more than they are home. Out galavanting in their Travel Trailer.

granted this recession has taken a bite out of RVing for the time being, but......

There is a chart here ( http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/bar8.htm )that shows miles dirven by age. Senior Citizen drivers drive less. I don't make these things up ---- honest I don't.

I think that trend has more to do with employment. The two catagories that are job age, drive the most. The one that is hitting retirement is somewhat less, and the one that is retired, is less. When you consider that about 30% of the miles traveled by a person are due to work, this makes sense.

Was thinking, I'm betting that there are a lot more drivers over 50 now than there were back in the 50's. Wonder if we can find that data.

 

[Phunky_2003]

I never doubted you had a chart.

What I do doubt is how accurate is that chart. There is no way to find any information on how far anybody drives in a year.....I don't care where the chart comes from.

I understand the being able to verify licensed drivers, cars per household and verifiable proof but that chart is like many other charts made by who knows who. It backs up the information they were trying to support.

If you can tell me anyway they can verify how far one drives in a year I'll believe it. And a survey of asking 1000 people isn't verifiable. ( I'm not saying that's how they came up with this so I don't know)

I'm also not saying older people drive more or less. What I am saying is nobody knows how much anybody is driving... And why does it matter?

 

[Smitty37]

Another thing that can have an effect on miles driven per capata is the aging population. The baby boomers started reaching their sixties in 2006...older people drive neither as often or as far as young folks so as the population ages we might see the miles driven per capata, level off or even trend down.

Don't know if I can buy that. Retirees like their RVs and use them to travel great distances. I keep an eye on my neighbor's house more than they are home. Out galavanting in their Travel Trailer.

granted this recession has taken a bite out of RVing for the time being, but......

There is a chart here ( http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/bar8.htm )that shows miles dirven by age. Senior Citizen drivers drive less. I don't make these things up ---- honest I don't.

I think that trend has more to do with employment. The two catagories that are job age, drive the most. The one that is hitting retirement is somewhat less, and the one that is retired, is less. When you consider that about 30% of the miles traveled by a person are due to work, this makes sense.

Was thinking, I'm betting that there are a lot more drivers over 50 now than there were back in the 50's. Wonder if we can find that data.

I would tend to agree with that for two reasons -- there are a lot more people over 50 due to the baby boomers and people are living longer. The over 80 population group is increasing faster than any other.

 

[Smitty37]

I never doubted you had a chart.

What I do doubt is how accurate is that chart. There is no way to find any information on how far anybody drives in a year.....I don't care where the chart comes from.

I understand the being able to verify licensed drivers, cars per household and verifiable proof but that chart is like many other charts made by who knows who. It backs up the information they were trying to support.

If you can tell me anyway they can verify how far one drives in a year I'll believe it. And a survey of asking 1000 people isn't verifiable. ( I'm not saying that's how they came up with this so I don't know)

I'm also not saying older people drive more or less. What I am saying is nobody knows how much anybody is driving... And why does it matter?

The chart I cited is from the US Department of Transportation.

The numbers are statistical and I would believe they are pretty darn close -- they have to be for future plannning of all kinds. You can choose to not believe them if you want to. Nobody will have you shot at sunrise Monday morning if you don't.

Why does it matter? I suppose that if you need to ask that, it doesn't matter at all to you. It does matter to a lot of people though and those and similar statistical charts have an impact on your life in many ways.

 

[Phunky_2003]

I never doubted you had a chart.

What I do doubt is how accurate is that chart. There is no way to find any information on how far anybody drives in a year.....I don't care where the chart comes from.

I understand the being able to verify licensed drivers, cars per household and verifiable proof but that chart is like many other charts made by who knows who. It backs up the information they were trying to support.

If you can tell me anyway they can verify how far one drives in a year I'll believe it. And a survey of asking 1000 people isn't verifiable. ( I'm not saying that's how they came up with this so I don't know)

I'm also not saying older people drive more or less. What I am saying is nobody knows how much anybody is driving... And why does it matter?

The chart I cited is from the US Department of Transportation.

The numbers are statistical and I would believe they are pretty darn close -- they have to be for future plannning of all kinds. You can choose to not believe them if you want to. Nobody will have you shot at sunrise Monday morning if you don't.

Why does it matter? I suppose that if you need to ask that, it doesn't matter at all to you. It does matter to a lot of people though and those and similar statistical charts have an impact on your life in many ways.

Sorry I don't see where it matters! Does an older couples car pollute more than a younger couples car? Apparently we must be on another topic now, I am still referring to a "green issue" I guess I missed some posts.

And as far as the chart goes? Same can be said to you! Believe what you see if you so choose, but they have no way of knowing what you drive. They don't ask when you renew your tags how much you've drove, they don't ask when getting an inspection sticker, nor insurance. Then again what do I know, maybe they have some magic formula for figuring out how many times one goes to which store and goes out to eat runs errands or dr visits drives on vacations goes to church whatever.

And you don't need to reply I am moving on cause I guessed since I asked it doesn't matter to me...

 

[Smitty37]

I never doubted you had a chart.

What I do doubt is how accurate is that chart. There is no way to find any information on how far anybody drives in a year.....I don't care where the chart comes from.

I understand the being able to verify licensed drivers, cars per household and verifiable proof but that chart is like many other charts made by who knows who. It backs up the information they were trying to support.

If you can tell me anyway they can verify how far one drives in a year I'll believe it. And a survey of asking 1000 people isn't verifiable. ( I'm not saying that's how they came up with this so I don't know)

I'm also not saying older people drive more or less. What I am saying is nobody knows how much anybody is driving... And why does it matter?

The chart I cited is from the US Department of Transportation.

The numbers are statistical and I would believe they are pretty darn close -- they have to be for future plannning of all kinds. You can choose to not believe them if you want to. Nobody will have you shot at sunrise Monday morning if you don't.

Why does it matter? I suppose that if you need to ask that, it doesn't matter at all to you. It does matter to a lot of people though and those and similar statistical charts have an impact on your life in many ways.

Sorry I don't see where it matters! Does an older couples car pollute more than a younger couples car? Apparently we must be on another topic now, I am still referring to a "green issue" I guess I missed some posts.

And as far as the chart goes? Same can be said to you! Believe what you see if you so choose, but they have no way of knowing what you drive. They don't ask when you renew your tags how much you've drove, they don't ask when getting an inspection sticker, nor insurance. Then again what do I know, maybe they have some magic formula for figuring out how many times one goes to which store and goes out to eat runs errands or dr visits drives on vacations goes to church whatever.

And you don't need to reply I am moving on cause I guessed since I asked it doesn't matter to me...

Your way of saying "I get the last word"

Who said they did? They don't have to know how many miles I drive or you drive or anyone else individually. If you are saying that statistical analysis isn't valid....I suspect that most folks (particularily those who want to sell things through advertising and government at all levels) will disagree with you.

 

[sbell111]

Your way of saying "I get the last word"

The irony is palpable.

 

[Smitty37]

Your way of saying "I get the last word"

The irony is palpable.

Obviously, it was intended to be.