Resource for COVID information

[Dehn0045]

There is so much information being put out on COVID it makes it hard to sift through the BS. Early on I started listening Michael Osterholm who is an epidemiologist from the University of Minnesota. While he offers a little bit more of a pessimistic view of the situation, I believe that the projections made by him and his organization (CIDRAP) have been more or less spot on since January. He is doing a weekly podcast that I find to be informative and easy to understand. Here is a link: https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/podcasts-webinars

For those that don't want to listen to the whole thing, here are the main takeaways from my prospective:

• This will be with us for a while, 12-18 months. Basically until we have an effective vaccine or until the virus has fully penetrated the population. Even if we get over the near-term hump, the fight isn't over.
• Do not count on a summertime lull in the spread of the virus
• Complete lockdowns will become untenable. We need a plan for how we will bring back routine activities while simultaneously fighting the virus. Everyone staying home is not a practical or viable plan for the long haul.
• The models can be useful but many recent models assume massive long-term lockdowns that are unlikely and only project numbers through August. Osterholm suggests a population penetration of about 50% with a roughly 1% case fatality is realistic, with the total population of the US at 320M this suggest 1.6M deaths over the next 12-18 months
• ICU bed capacity will be important
• Cloth masks may help, but don't have a false sense of security by wearing one.

 

[pshrynk]

UMN has a very good ID department. Governor Walz is leaning heavily on them and Mayo Clinic to guide our response to this situation.

 

[henry1164]

Thank you for the excellent review. Another important part of the information being presented is that testing will be a large part of decision making - testing for those who are infected (or not) as well as testing for those who had coronavirus and their level of antibodies. A lot of useful information in testing to ensure there is pursuit of the control of newly infected. Testing for antibodies will allow people those with proof of virus rejection to return to work as well as determine if a person is a candidate for donating plasma for treating those infected. With all that is said, this will take time and the contributions of everyone keeping away from others to reduce the spread AND WASHING HANDS OFTEN!

 

[Dehn0045]

Another important part of the information being presented is that testing will be a large part of decision making - testing for those who are infected (or not) as well as testing for those who had coronavirus and their level of antibodies.

I agree, I think we might get a clearer picture when/if antibody tests are widely available. If the penetration of the virus is much greater than what we are seeing then we might be in much better shape, unfortunately I think this is wishful thinking but we will see. Also, I have heard some (including St. Louis Fed President) suggest that we should have universal daily testing and people wear a badge (sticker) to show that they are not infected. This seems completely unrealistic to me. In podcasts 1&2 Osterholm suggests that testing supplies will likely run low in the coming weeks due to shortages of reagents and swabs and even people that are sick won't be able to get tested. Again, we will see, but he has been studying this stuff a lot longer than me and I don't have any reason not to trust him. But at least I am prepared for the eventual possibility.

 

[Dehn0045]

UMN has a very good ID department. Governor Walz is leaning heavily on them and Mayo Clinic to guide our response to this situation.

I'm a little biased because I went to UMN. Given how well MN has responded to this I am thankful that all of my family and my wife's family are still there (where I grew up). So far TX is doing ok, I am cautiously optimistic...