how accurate National Weather Bulletin

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Not here in St. Louis but our weather is notoriously hard to predict. For things like wind, temp, etc. they're usually pretty good but for precipitation, they're 50% if that.

To be fair, we're located right where Southern storms make the turn north and Alberta clippers turn east so we can have completely different weather 30 miles apart.
 
locally...not so good...unless I am misunderstanding "we are expecting severe winter weather with significant precipitation" to really mean 50 and clear.... this was with 12 hours lead....
 
maxwell_smart007 said:
I was just wondering how accurate the US National Weather Service is, re: special weather statements.

They're calling for some dangerous winter weather (including -60 windchill), and I was just curious if they're usually fairly accurate...
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NWS is usually very accurate, but that's because you don't generally
hear them forecast as much as tell you what's already on the horizon.
If they're telling there's gold ball sized hail on the way, that's because
they've already gotten measurements from people 30 miles from you
as the storm passed by them. I don't see/hear much from them
except when that siren goes off and they interrupt a broadcast. Then
it's usually something dire.
 
I don't think they are too accurate more than about 24 hours out. Our 'weekly' forcasts seem to change every day. I know I won't plan on how to dress for my dog walk that takes place about 11am until about 10:30am.
 
When I think of weather projections I'm always put to mind of the time in Owego, NY when the radio broadcast studio was in a hotel and you could look from outside right into it and they could look outside. I pulled in to and parked just as they were reading the weather - it was raining pitchforks and hammer handles. Their projection was 50% chance of rain.
 
The weekly forecast here will change before you can finish reading the report. And local weather is worse!

I have been 'unfriended' from two local TV stations on Facebook for quoting their weather report and asking how they could be so wrong. Okay, I did ask them to just read us the Farmers Almanac.....





Scott (read the Farmers Almanac) B
 
Considering they are using some *Cray-class* computing resources and that they run projections round-the-clock, they are pretty much accurate. However, a computer projection is just that -- a projection. There's no fail safe for a meandering jet stream that does not want to conform to the weather man's script.:biggrin::biggrin:
 
walshjp17 said:
Considering they are using some *Cray-class* computing resources and that they run projections round-the-clock, they are pretty much accurate. However, a computer projection is just that -- a projection. There's no fail safe for a meandering jet stream that does not want to conform to the weather man's script.:biggrin::biggrin:
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Computer Models on whatever size computer are no better than their assumptions.
 
The NWS bulletins are usually fairly accurate since they keep updating them as the weather approaches and they usually give themselves a wide range of outcomes (ie. 6" to 12" inches of snow). Their timline is usually pessimistic with storms ending long before the bulletin is set to expire. I would trust their windchill predictions. In my mind at least, temperature and winds are a little easier to predict than actual precipitation amounts.
 
maxwell_smart007 said:
I was just wondering how accurate the US National Weather Service is, re: special weather statements.

They're calling for some dangerous winter weather (including -60 windchill), and I was just curious if they're usually fairly accurate...
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Just out of curiousity - would that be degrees C or F?
 
I'll tell ya, that would be the job to have, doesn't matter
if your right or wrong, ya still have a job........

Not very accurate, in in riverside, pa
 
ed4copies said:
At that level, it is not a lot different.

Celsius and Fahrenheit are equal at - 40 degrees. (40 below zero)
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I know: above -40 F is warmer than C; at -40 they are equal; and below -40 F is colder. if the -60 is C then F would be -76: if the -60 is F then C would be -51 and change.
 
I prefer to plan for the worst and if it doesnt happen no real harm done. I really need to get some work done in the shop but after seeing the forcast i realise i need to take precautions to guarantee the safety of my posessions. I pretty much jammed everything on one side to the other so i could pull my fj all the way forward and squish my subaru and fron end loader inside. Then made room in the garge for wifes car. I have lived in -60 and we could get that here in michigan too, weather channel says -15 to -65, they said way to hard to predict this coming storm. -60 can crack engine blocks and radiators, freeze trannies and rear ends. Cars indoors is best, otherwise plugged in or left running. Antifreeze in the gas, 2 blankets inside the car and jumper cables. Odds are it wont be that bad for most of us but if it is and you didnt prepare, the results will be far more work and expense than was necessary.
 
Turns out, they were right about the snow - 30cm, I'd guess - but wrong about the wind...

That being said, if we HAD decided to ignore it, and take our trip, then we'd have definitely been stuck in our little Nissan car. (The truck's been sounding a bit odd in the winter - sounds like a bearing going in the engine somewhere, so I didn't want to take it long distance).

THanks all for the help!

Andrew
 
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