Greater Houston Area COVID Data

[Curly]

I watch 2 sites for stats, the first because it shows the rankings of countries and the second because it shows additional information by Provinces and States. I'm struck by the fact that the US is still number one on the list and has been for months where we dropped from 11th place (from when I found out about the site) to 19th. Your daily deaths are 600 to 800 where ours are 4 to 20. Considering you have over 9 times our population your loss of life is staggering to me. If it was a war your military was fighting you would all be screaming that something be done to end it. Yet it appears you are coming to accept it as a new normal.

Our country has handled a lot badly (care homes especially) but we seem to be learning from it. Things would have been a lot better if we acted sooner and it took Trudeau's wife having symptoms after returning from England to take thing seriously or things would have been even worse here. At least our leaders aren't in denial about it anymore.

I wear a mask when I have to go out and gloves or carry hand sanitizer. Lots of the public does but it would be better if everyone did.

First site. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Click on the "Yesterday" and "2 Days Ago" at the top of the chart to see complete data as the "Now" data is constantly changing.

Second site. https://ncov2019.live/?fbclid=IwAR3mv7gekn4v5s1SA6dxfCK2RCzncZZOA7_1hd9pwpTuS6Q8PuOCPFDBb-I Click on the "Survival Rate Calculator" in the black bar along the top to see how you would fair if you got it.

I really hope it gets better again quickly but my pessimistic side knows it is going to take a long while.

Stay safe.
Pete

 

[magpens]

Like Curly, I am monitoring US numbers from "The Northern Neighbor" .... with alarm that is growing rapidly.

I need guidance with interpreting the numbers for weekends. . Fred remarked, in Post #2, that the weekend numbers tend to be lower.

I suspect that this is not a real effect, but an artifact due to fewer recorder/reporter channels functioning at full capacity on weekends.
On the other hand, due to the significance of this data, I would think that efforts could be implemented to minimize this effect.

Please offer, if you can, a little clarification.

With huge concern, and sincere hope for early resolution of issues related to this crisis.

 

[Dehn0045]

@magpens the best I can tell there are two primary methods for reporting "new cases". The first, and simplest, is the number of new positive cases recorded/reported on that day. The second method all of the newly reported cases are back-dated based on available information (onset of symptoms, sample collection, test completion, or case report date). An example of the 2nd method is detailed in my replies in this thread for Harris County. Part of the problem is when these methods are combined for larger reporting areas (states or nationwide). Since the weekends tend to be slower with respect to sampling and testing it causes the weekend days to be lower. For Texas the numbers reported on Mondays are typically much lower, it seems reasonable that the number reported at 4pm Monday is for data collected on Sunday, which is probably a slow day for testing and data processing.

Like the old saying goes "if it bleeds it leads", there is plenty of misinformation and half-truths in the media right now. Both outrage and fear. This can be difficult to wrap our minds around. One example is the hospital loads in Houston, the mixed messaging came from the same source -- THE HOSPITALS. They issued a statement urging people to use caution and that hospitals were approaching capacity. Then Gov. Abbott stopped elective procedures in large counties, this prompted 4 CEOs of major hospitals to hold a joint presser to ease people's concerns and say that they had plenty of capacity. One of the 4 CEOs then went on a different news network and said that people should stay home because otherwise hospitals would be overrun. So what is it? All that said, you don't have to be a genius to look at the hospitalization trends and realize that this can't continue for much longer. We doubled hospitalizations (both regular and ICU) in 2 weeks, currently at about 15% and 25% respectively. Simple math says that in about 4-6 weeks we will be over 100% on both if this continues. I'm NOT saying that there won't be a bed if someone needs one when we're over 100%, but it is clearly unsustainable. We have several options - expand capacity, slow infection, cure people faster, or let people die without care. I don't think any reasonable person wants to simply let people die, and there are a lot of people working on curing people faster but this has proven to be difficult and slow. Hospital capacities are being expanded, but there is a practical limit, so slowing the spread is the only realistic option. Everyone should at least be doing minimally invasive things to slow the spread, IMHO not doing so is selfish and ignorant. Masks are an element of this, there are previous studies that show N95 and surgical masks help with similar infectious diseases and there is a growing body of evidence that cloth masks (if worn properly) help to at least some extent. Are masks the "be all and end all", obviously not, but even if they only prevent 1% of infections then that is significant for the entire population. Socially distance, hand washing, disinfect surfaces, meet with family/friends outdoors, get tested if you have symptoms. No matter what, things probably ain't gonna be "back to normal" until there is an effective treatment or vaccine, but we have some control over how many people are still alive when things do get back to normal. Ok, off my soap box

Here is site that I find useful for data visualization: https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

 

[magpens]

Thank you, Sam. . I have to re-read and contemplate. . In the meantime .....

Another worry I have is the news media report (re: OK rally) that requests have been made "from the highest level(s)" to reduce testing.
Implied is a pressure to alter reporting (especially on deaths, I would think) to suit those purposes.

The number of reported daily deaths is presently lower than a week/10 days ago.
But there has been no similar significant reduction in number of new cases, in fact that number has gone up on average.
Those two trends are inconsistent.
Admittedly, deaths must lag new cases. . But I think you get my point.

I am basing my thoughts on info gleaned from Worldometers website.

 

[Dehn0045]

@magpens there is almost certainly some exaggeration or suppression of numbers happening (both intentional and not) but I don't think it is significant in the current situation. I think the current trends can be totally explained by delayed response (as you mention) combined with average age of new cases (considerably lower in recent weeks). For the present time it seems that we may be doing a better job protecting vulnerable populations, but I'm concerned about our ability to keep this up.

 

[Dehn0045]

There is also an issue with "who" is being tested and why. It seems that a very large number of people that are infected have either no symptoms or very mild symptoms. I would imagine that a lot more mildly symptomatic people are being tested now that it is summertime and there are fewer causes of symptoms. One study done in Ischgl Austria ( https://www.google.com/amp/s/medicalxpress.com/news/2020-06-virus-hit-austria-resort-antibodies.amp ) suggests that as much as 85% of cases are no more than mildly symptomatic. This study, along with several others suggest the true mortality to be somewhere around 0.5%, which is obviously bad but nowhere near the early numbers of 2-4%. If you look at nationwide data most countries are somewhere around 2-10% crude mortality (deaths divided by cases), the US currently sits at 5%, so clearly a lot of the mild cases are being missed. I think that the extent to which cases are being missed plays a big factor. This leads to huge discrepancies from state to state, or even at the more local levels.

 

[sbwertz]

Doing all my shopping online...perishables for curbside pickup only. Sam's and Kroger both have curbside pickup. Everything else is shipped. Thank goodness for UPS, USPS, Amazon and FedEx.

 

[sbwertz]

Like Curly, I am monitoring US numbers from "The Northern Neighbor" .... with alarm that is growing rapidly.

I need guidance with interpreting the numbers for weekends. . Fred remarked, in Post #2, that the weekend numbers tend to be lower.

I suspect that this is not a real effect, but an artifact due to fewer recorder/reporter channels functioning at full capacity on weekends.
On the other hand, due to the significance of this data, I would think that efforts could be implemented to minimize this effect.

Please offer, if you can, a little clarification.

With huge concern, and sincere hope for early resolution of issues related to this crisis.

Sunday and Monday numbers are low because many places don't report on weekends. Tuesday (Monday's numbers) are artificially high because the weekend numbers are coming in. Some don't come in until Wednesday. All numbers are 7 to 10 days behind actual dates, because it takes that long to collect and distribute information in a bureaucracy!

 

[sbwertz]

Thank you, Sam. . I have to re-read and contemplate. . In the meantime .....

Another worry I have is the news media report (re: OK rally) that requests have been made "from the highest level(s)" to reduce testing.
Implied is a pressure to alter reporting (especially on deaths, I would think) to suit those purposes.

The number of reported daily deaths is presently lower than a week/10 days ago.
But there has been no similar significant reduction in number of new cases, in fact that number has gone up on average.
Those two trends are inconsistent.
Admittedly, deaths must lag new cases. . But I think you get my point.

I am basing my thoughts on info gleaned from Worldometers website.

Deaths are down because we seniors are smart enough to self isolate. The new cases are mostly the 20-40 age group, who are less likely to die from the virus. They seem to think they are immortal, and go about their business as usual, spreading the virus everywhere. However, an interesting statistic from AZ. 25 percent of our hospitalizations are now in the under 40 crowd.

 

[Dehn0045]

for those following along on this thread, I have been monitoring the number of cases reported for Houston/Harris county over the 4-day period of May 23-26. Here is a summary of the observations:

5/27 186
6/06 496
6/15 742
6/24 897

This number continues to climb, currently sitting at 973. Finally it looks to be slowing down, over a month later. It seems pretty unlikely to me that this increase has been due to new patients being tested recently, more likely it is due to lagging reporting systems. The numbers that we are looking at in real time don't appear to accurately reflect the current reality (regardless of whether it is getting better or worse).

 

[sbwertz]

29 percent positive today in AZ.

 

[TellicoTurning]

This virus thing is getting troublesome.... especially in two of my favorite three states... even Tennessee is seeing some uptick in the numbers, but not so bad as Texas and Arizona... glad to be living in the sticks... we're 6 miles out of town, town is only about 800 people and our closest neighbors are about 1000 yards away....

 

[aldjmc]

I wish nothing but good health to everyone. Even though there are also fools here in Canada who feel Covid-19 is not really a thing to worry about, we've been guided by strong political leadership from both ends of the spectrum, left and right, who have been getting their guidance from doctors and scientists because it is a health issue and not a political one. Testing and contact tracing have been the key. Canada, which has 10% of the population of USA, has recorded a total of 104000 total cases., which is less than the number reported in the last two days down south. Listen to the health experts, not the politicians. I look forward to the day when I can safely visit the USA again, and when I can welcome American tourists in Canada. I feel like until Americans can get their collective poop in a group, that time is a long way off.

 

[sbwertz]

This is a quote from a Phoenix doctor:

"Finished a week of night shifts earlier today and I think the most surprising thing for me (and perhaps the most concerning) was the dramatic shift in the ages of COVID-19 patients being admitted to the hospital. Over this past weekend, the ages of my most seriously ill COVID-19 patients (requiring supplemental oxygen and aggressive respiratory support — none were on ventilators thankfully) were 27, 45, 24 and 32 years. The 24-year-old had ZERO risk factors for the virus. Once again, PLEASE mask up when out in public and stay at home and socially distance consistently. We will get through this pandemic mess as long as we all work together to reduce the spread of this terrible infection. Thank you!"

 

[Dehn0045]

For those that are still following along, this will be my last update on the May 23-26 data for Houston/Harris county. Today the total shows 1,027 cases for the 4-day period, here is a summary:

5/27 186
6/06 496
6/15 742
6/24 897
7/01 973
7/20 1027

The dashboard for Houston/Harris County now shows this data in the "Epidemiological Curve" and shows a different table with "New Cases" that represents the number of new cases added to the total dataset on that day. Due to all of the delays involved (infection, testing/analytical, reporting) it is my opinion that this type of "new case" data is more representative -- especially if the number of infections is increasing.

There has also been several updates to the way data is reported on TMC's dashboard (link in post#1). For now it appears that new hospitalizations and total people hospitalized has stabilized. This is an optimistic trend.

As an individual observation I really feel like behaviors have changed significantly around here, so it isn't entirely surprising that hospitalizations are decreasing, but there are so many factors involved. Early on in March there was about 50% of people wearing masks in the grocery store, this dropped to about 25% in May, now it is nearly 100%. I know that masks are not 100% perfect at stopping spread, but I believe it is an "easy to see" indicator of the seriousness with which people are approaching the virus.

I am worried about schools, I don't think there is a right answer. I know of at least several teachers that have quit because they were told that they needed to report for full in-person style teaching. I worry for the health/welfare of teachers and staff, especially those that are more vulnerable to the disease. But at the same time I understand that school is incredibly important for kids and their families, both for their emotional health and financial health. It is a heavy burden for those that are in positions to make these decisions.

 

[TellicoTurning]

Tennessee is creeping upwards too, but I'm really glad I don't live in Houston anymore.

Every one be safe, wear your mask, wash your hands and stay home as much as you can.

 

[Dehn0045]

I'm really glad I don't live in Houston anymore.

Yeah, our situation definitely could be better, and being somewhere out in the sticks would definitely be preferable. I was lost in thought about these things a few weeks ago when I eventually came to the conclusion that you can't run from a global pandemic. I think part of our problem here is that we didn't think it would get bad like NY or Italy because it hadn't yet. Now I think most people realize the flaw in that logic. The same applies everywhere else. I worry about my friends and family in MN, they are doing really well there now but it also sounds like the precautions are loosening, just like what we did here a month ago. A slow increase is OK, as long as you start taking actions to change course, we were slow to respond to the increasing cases/hospitalizations and now we're paying the price. Hopefully a lesson that other areas don't have to learn the hard way. Still, there is no easy answer.

 

[sbwertz]

For those that are still following along, this will be my last update on the May 23-26 data for Houston/Harris county. Today the total shows 1,027 cases for the 4-day period, here is a summary:

5/27 186
6/06 496
6/15 742
6/24 897
7/01 973
7/20 1027

The dashboard for Houston/Harris County now shows this data in the "Epidemiological Curve" and shows a different table with "New Cases" that represents the number of new cases added to the total dataset on that day. Due to all of the delays involved (infection, testing/analytical, reporting) it is my opinion that this type of "new case" data is more representative -- especially if the number of infections is increasing.

There has also been several updates to the way data is reported on TMC's dashboard (link in post#1). For now it appears that new hospitalizations and total people hospitalized has stabilized. This is an optimistic trend.

As an individual observation I really feel like behaviors have changed significantly around here, so it isn't entirely surprising that hospitalizations are decreasing, but there are so many factors involved. Early on in March there was about 50% of people wearing masks in the grocery store, this dropped to about 25% in May, now it is nearly 100%. I know that masks are not 100% perfect at stopping spread, but I believe it is an "easy to see" indicator of the seriousness with which people are approaching the virus.

I am worried about schools, I don't think there is a right answer. I know of at least several teachers that have quit because they were told that they needed to report for full in-person style teaching. I worry for the health/welfare of teachers and staff, especially those that are more vulnerable to the disease. But at the same time I understand that school is incredibly important for kids and their families, both for their emotional health and financial health. It is a heavy burden for those that are in positions to make these decisions.

Hospitalizations are down in AZ even though cases are still rising. It is because most of the new cases are in the younger age groups, who are less likely to be hospitalized or die from the virus. Still a lot of older people dying because they are exposed by the younger crowd, though.