Just an observation

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OKLAHOMAN

OKLAHOMAN

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I've been under the impression that the economy was bad. I've called 9 different contractors for a bid on adding onto our home. Four said they're booked from November to March 2013 and didn't even want to bid, & the other 5 none can start until late September to mid October. Each have told me that this has been a record year. So far I've only gotten one bid back and waiting on the others. The last few weeks Chevy has been saying they have had the best year ever, Darden Resturants (Red Lobster, Olive Garden and four more) also a record year in profits. So is it bad or is it the media. Please don't get political just give your observations from your aera.
 
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About a year ago I placed a help wanted add and got 75 resumes on 12 hours. Placed one a week ago and got 20 in three days.
When we need an outside contractor we have to get 3 bids. I have to call 10 and bother them to get the 3 I need. I also keep hearing contractors need work but the way they respond leads me to believe that they aren't that hard up. Their main complaint is that there is always some idiot who will bid the job at cost and get it.
 
Well, the company I work for just finished a multi-million dollar home on an island for a couple from England. We had a year to complete it, which was actually 10 months by the time the finished design was approved, (of course that was subject to change along the way). We made the deadline. My reward, along with a co-worker in the cabinetshop, was to be layed off. More work ahead but once again it will be awhile before they need cabinets, ... just getting the foundations in now.
I HOPE what you are seeing is a good sign of what's to come!
 
Roy:
The problem (at least here, anyway) is that the legimate contractors are getting killed. The unemployment rate here is at around 10 percent and has been for a long time. Anybody who has ever swung a hammer and has access to a pickup truck is now a "contractor".

When the licensed guys hear "bid", they run for cover, as they can't compete with two guys drawing unemployment doing contracting work "on the side". Additionally, add-on work is a contractors worst dream. With "add ons", you never know exactly what you are getting into until you've given a price. So the "good guys" do add ons when they have absolutely nothing else to do.

That could be what's going on in your area, too.
 
In our area Jobs are scarce and wages have fallen. Most of the construction trade has vanished and there are more bidders than work. New construction in residential is spotty as most houses can be bought for a third of build cost. Only the gated communities are seeing any activity. We have a university and several small collages locally that over whelm the start up/ entry level and part time positions. There is an abundance of empty commercial properties. Whole malls that stand empty or a single unit rented. Our recovery is slow and will continue to be so. Remodeling in such times picks up drastically as people cant sell their house or qualifiy to buy a new one.


We have the same problem with the "2 men and A truck" contractors as well. They get a handymans license and start to bid general contractors jobs.
 
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We are having our best year at the hardware shop. There are days that we cannot keep up. We use to be able to ship orders received before 11am the same day, but not anymore. Almost no orders placed on Monday will ship that day. We have more employees than ever. 95% of our orders are out of state so we do not get a feel for the economic situation in any local.

Sorry for mis-spellings. Just learning how to use an IPAD.
 
Could be my problem is that I refuse to call two men and a truck as some here know when I first retired I worked at the local Lowes and managed the back end of the store and know these contractors. I'm looking at about a $40 to $50 thousand dollar add on so the only contractors that I will hire must have great referancesCould be my problem is that I refuse to call two men and a truck as some here know when I first retired I worked at the local Lowes and managed the back end of the store and know these contractors. I'm looking at about a $40 to $50 thousand dollar add on so the only contractors that I will hire must have great references.
 
:confused::confused: I don't know how things are in other parts of the country, but in Wisconsin, if you want to go out to a nice place to eat you better get there early. On the same note, I had to go to 3 of the big box home improvement stores today and parked in the front spot at all of them. This was AM, afternoon, and PM. No crouded isles, no looking all over for someone to help you, and no standing in line at the checkout. I watch the stock market daily, and all I can see is that it is controled by hedge funds and speculaters who buy stocks without having the money, and sell stocks they don't own!! The media hypes and distortes everything trying to be the first with the story. And the investors worry to much about what is happening in Spain or some other minor country. As you point out, American companys are reporting record profits, jobs are up (but not enough for the media) and in Wisconsin, I don't know of a street, road, or highway that isn't being worked on. That's just my observation. Jim S
 
A lot of the better quality contractors have gone do to the number of fly-by-night operators around. Also a lot of people can not afford to move so more add-ons going on. Same for cars a lot of people that changed every two or three years are now hanging on to their older vehicles.
 
We have a problem with the working poor. There are thousands of jobs that pay under $10.00 an hour and only work 28 hours a week. Most of them retail jobs. Workers that fill those jobs cant support themselves without a second income and its compounded by the fact that the 28 hours is spread over 7 days not 4 or 5 so their costs of going to work are higher.
 
2011 Ford Brand Sales up 17 Percent for the Year in U.S.; Fuel-Efficient Cars, Utilities, Trucks Drive Sales Gains


  • U.S. sales of the Ford brand totaled 2,062,915 vehicles in 2011, sealing its first three-point market share gain over three consecutive years since 1970
  • Ford brand small car sales were up 25 percent in 2011, with 244,291 vehicles sold, while utilities increased 31 percent with 579,626 sales. Ford sold 584,917 F-Series pickups in 2011, making it the best-selling truck for 35 consecutive years and the best-selling vehicle for 30 years
  • Ford posts best December retail sales month since 2005; total company sales in December were up 10 percent
  • Ford announces 2012 outlook for industry sales and economic growth


DETROIT – Chevrolet sold 4.76 million vehicles around the world in 2011, setting a global sales record and driving General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) global sales to more than 9 million vehicles, a 7.6 percent gain compared with 2010.
GM gained four-tenths of a point of market share to 11.9 percent of the global vehicle industry. Sales were up in all four reporting regions – North America, South America, Europe and International Operations – as GM sold a total of 9,025,942 vehicles compared with 8,385,484 in 2010.
The United States led the way for Chevrolet with total vehicle sales of 1,775,812, up more than 13 percent from 2010. China posted record sales of 595,068, up 9.5 percent from the previous year. Other markets that posted significant year-over-year increases include Vietnam (79 percent), Russia (49 percent), Turkey (30 percent) and Germany (21 percent).


With Ford up 17% and Chevy 13% up in the US I'm just not buying that people are keeping cars longer




ren-lathe said:
A lot of the better quality contractors have gone do to the number of fly-by-night operators around. Also a lot of people can not afford to move so more add-ons going on. Same for cars a lot of people that changed every two or three years are now hanging on to their older vehicles.
Click to expand...
 
I don't think it is just the media. Politicians are leading the battle cry from both sides and you can choose to drink the punch from either side or not.

That being said I believe things are looking up for the common folks, if they are willing to go where the jobs are. I know someone who is struggling to feed his family, and constantly cries about the lack of work. I sent him a lot of job postings from the northern states and he was offended. He refuses to move from his friends and church, then says God will provide. I will stop there before I get into trouble.

JMO but only a moron would hire Two Dudes contracting unless they were fully certified and bonded. When I look for a contractor the first thing I ask for is the license number so I can check the status. You would be amazed at how many "quality contractors" get upset at me asking.

There are many signs of improvement just not as strong where things once were.

Instead of "go west my son" the cry should be "go north".
 
OKLAHOMAN said:
I've been under the impression that the economy was bad. I've called 9 different contractors for a bid on adding onto our home. Four said they're booked from November to March 2013 and didn't even want to bid, & the other 5 none can start until late September to mid October. Each have told me that this has been a record year. So far I've only gotten one bid back and waiting on the others. The last few weeks Chevy has been saying they have had the best year ever, Darden Resturants (Red Lobster, Olive Garden and four more) also a record year in profits. So is it bad or is it the media. Please don't get political just give your observations from your aera.
Click to expand...

Well most of the building contractors in this area have either gone belly up or have severely reduced their workforce. We have at least a dozen unfinished housing developments within 15 miles that have not built a new house for 4 years. Houses in my development (all less then 10 years old and most less than 7) are selling for about 30% below their original purchase price and for about 3 years you couldn't give them away - and they are nice houses. Ours is down roughly $80,000 from the purchase price - we can live with that because we don't have to move.

The local food pantry handles about 500 more cases per year than before the bust (which really hit here in late 2008). That is double the number of cases.

Our population which was seeing a lot of growth from retirees moving here and Mexican and South American immigrants coming here for work has stopped growing and is probably decreasing slightly due to death and immigrants going elsewhere to find work. Some have told us that they were going home because they were not able to get work.

The local farmer's markets got hit with a double whammy - a falloff in customers and a drought which cut into their crops. They are hurting. Chicken farmers are doing well though, chicken is still selling big here and they are making some progress in penatrating.

Wal-Mart, based on their parking lot and the number of shoppers in the store, seems to be booming or at least not seeing any serious fall off in sales. But one of the better grocery stores in town closed their doors which probably helped the others.

Automobile dealers are mixed - some of them seem to be doing fine others have empty lots - at least one salesman told me their sales were way down after a record year last year.

Boat dealers are hurting. Boats are usually a big business here and dealers are having a tough time keeping their heads above water.

Much of the housing in some areas here is "second home" for wealthy folks from Washington DC and that business is in a drop dead state. A house that would have brought a couple of million 5 years ago will probably sit on the market for months now at half that.

Unemployment in DE is a lot lower than nationwide. I think how you view the economy is going to depend a lot on exactly where you are.
 
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OKLAHOMAN said:
2011 Ford Brand Sales up 17 Percent for the Year in U.S.; Fuel-Efficient Cars, Utilities, Trucks Drive Sales Gains


  • U.S. sales of the Ford brand totaled 2,062,915 vehicles in 2011, sealing its first three-point market share gain over three consecutive years since 1970
  • Ford brand small car sales were up 25 percent in 2011, with 244,291 vehicles sold, while utilities increased 31 percent with 579,626 sales. Ford sold 584,917 F-Series pickups in 2011, making it the best-selling truck for 35 consecutive years and the best-selling vehicle for 30 years
  • Ford posts best December retail sales month since 2005; total company sales in December were up 10 percent
  • Ford announces 2012 outlook for industry sales and economic growth

DETROIT – Chevrolet sold 4.76 million vehicles around the world in 2011, setting a global sales record and driving General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) global sales to more than 9 million vehicles, a 7.6 percent gain compared with 2010.
GM gained four-tenths of a point of market share to 11.9 percent of the global vehicle industry. Sales were up in all four reporting regions – North America, South America, Europe and International Operations – as GM sold a total of 9,025,942 vehicles compared with 8,385,484 in 2010.
The United States led the way for Chevrolet with total vehicle sales of 1,775,812, up more than 13 percent from 2010. China posted record sales of 595,068, up 9.5 percent from the previous year. Other markets that posted significant year-over-year increases include Vietnam (79 percent), Russia (49 percent), Turkey (30 percent) and Germany (21 percent).


With Ford up 17% and Chevy 13% up in the US I'm just not buying that people are keeping cars longer




ren-lathe said:
A lot of the better quality contractors have gone do to the number of fly-by-night operators around. Also a lot of people can not afford to move so more add-ons going on. Same for cars a lot of people that changed every two or three years are now hanging on to their older vehicles.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
The question is where did the sales come from? What did total automobile sales in the USA do. You can't tell by just Ford and GM numbers since both increased market share someone else lost market share.
 
Media! every da#% election year. Things could be better but I don't see them as that bad.

I think what's being perceived as bad is people are not charging the heck out of stuff and the financial groups are not making the big interest that they are used to.
I stopped taking credit cards and can't recall any walk aways because of it,in fact no one
really thought twice about it.
People seem to be more guarded with their money.
 
I have heard that we are in a recession, but then I go to the mall and there are plenty of people there. Are they buying with cash? running up the credit card? just looking? Same with restruants Friday nights are always crowded. I'm retired so I am really not up to snuff on the work force. I do know my local school system is over a hundred million dollars in the red and have laid off teachers, office personel and maintaince men trying to overcome stupid stupid spending. I think America had better wake up and return to some of yesteryears morals, standards and work ethics.

Ben
 
Paul in OKC said:
Been trying to hire a machinist for 3 weeks now, not even a nibble. Last two I had had trouble getting to work and/or calling in when missing.
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I've had the same issues, I think ther days of being a "Machinist" (someone that can turn raw material into a part without a computer) are long gone.

All I've gotten is button pushers to apply, for kicks I give them a part off the screw machine, and point to it and ask them if they can set it up (no computer on it all cams) :biggrin:
 
Roy,
The numbers show the economy is still in the tank.
However, as people reduce their travel, they still eat out -- it's a relatively inexpensive substitute for vacationing.
And, more people are fixing up their homes now because they can't sell or don't have somewhere else to go.
Tons of short-sale and foreclosures have been purchased by investors who then hire contractors to make the place liveable.
I've been following it closely in the Space Coast and expect it's very similar elsewhere around the country.
 
Personally I think the media is the cause of the slow growth of the economy... our media no longer reports the new, they try to make the news... almost all stories seem to me to be made up or sensationalized to increase the media viewership... if we are told often enough how bad things are, then we will eventually begin to believe... businesses will respond to pressures of the market place... if sales are down in one field, they will learn why and take steps turn things around.... I believe the economy will revive itself, but the media needs to step back and stop manipulating the data to discourage us..... just my opinion and has the value of what you paid for it.
 
Just some thoughts as to possible reasons (I have no data to back this up).

Is it possible that many, more established contractors have reduced their workforce which limits their ability to tackle many jobs or keeps them working longer at the jobs they take?

Are many of these established contractors also not bidding because the people they laid off are under bidding them as "two guys in a truck"?

With the perception that the economy is down (real or not), are the established contractors losing some business because they still want pre-recession rates that customers balk at?

The housing market here is doing "OK", but you will have a tough time getting a quality contractor to do an addition because they are still building homes. Around most military posts the housing market wasn't hit quite as bad. Although, I still don't understand how the types of homes they are building can be affordable for the contractors/developers since they are in the price range well above what the average person here can afford.

Side note to the automobile industry: The increases in sales or maket share have a lot of variables other than you and I buying their product. There is the loss of market share by other companies; fleet sales to major corporations; and in the case of GM, many of their increases were due to huge increases in fleet sales to the Government.
 
I had a small shop/pole barn built this year (pictures soon), contacted 6 or so builders for bids and only got 1.
At the factory I work at the hiring lady is going to the high schools to recruit workers and has now had to expand to the next circle of counties out. She already tapped out the immediate 4 counties. And half of new hires don't stay. Add that to retirements, expanded production and vacations and we are in a forced overtime situation. Stinks, less shop time.
I hear about how bad the economy is but I'm not seeing it here lately.
 
If you look at people eating at restaurants, car sales, and new home sales as economic indicators, be very careful how interpret the data. I am not or never have been a "nay sayer" and always had a positive outlook. BUT the economy here keeps getting worse, daily.

The "people eating at restaurants" indicator is an optical illusion. There appears to be more people eating out only because the number of restaurants is about 60 percent less than in 2008. Fewer restaurants makes the ones still in business look busier. To do you own validation or refusal on this theory, drive by several "strip malls,etc" that servered as homes for restaurants. Count the vacancies that were once filled with restaurants.

Car sales numbers also add quite of sneakiness unless you look closely at the sales Ford, GM, Dodge et al are making money on Government sales and world markets. Americans are buying cheaper imports like Kia and Hundayi at a clip 4 times greater than in 2007.

New home sales are beginning to "bump up" as foreclosures "steal deals" become harder to find. Many of the new homes being sold today have been built for over 20 months and in some cases, the home sale price represents less than the cost of the materials used to build them.

The only "indicators" that really mean anything to me are consumer confidence and unemployment figures from the States. Consumer spend HAS to increase, simply because the price of fuel has added about 25 percent to the cost of shipping products. If you want to see this in action, watch the price of chicken and corn for the next 6 months.

We live in a resort area. When we see people who used to be very rich using coupons and government food debit cards, this speaks volumes to us. I think we are headed I the wrong direction on an unsustainable path and without action by congress to stop the tax increases coming in January will be devestating. WE CAN'T CONTINUE TO BORROW 50 CENTS OF EACH DOLLAR SPENT BY GOVERNMENT-Ask Greece!
 
There are a lot of oil technology jobs in Houston. I worked in that sector for over 40 years. Now, I am without a job, BUT....no one wants to hire a 61 year old. What is the saying...put out to pasture. But I stay busy making and selling pens, try to anyway..
 
I can say I have watched layoffs left and right with my company. We have shipped jobs to Mexico and India to save money. No raises in almost 5 years. 401k matching stopped. I don't think its fine and I cant imagine the good folks that need work think it is fine. I would say that is things are good in your area be thankful and Pray they stay that way.
 
It's bad enough

Contrary to some, I believe much of the media is painting too rosy a picture.

Nationwide, hiring is down.

Unemployment is 8.3% (that is the official number which is always understated because of how it is calculated) and not improving.

After a brief spurt housing starts are down again. New business startups seem to be down.

There is a glut of housing on the market at really low prices and even with mortgage interest rates at all time lows, a lot of it is going begging. Sales are beginning to pick up, but the prices are really depressed. In our neighborhood $250,000(original price) houses are going as low as $150,000. Fortunately for us we don't have to move. Some do and they're older folks who paid cash - their "net worth" took a real hit. The lucky ones had locked in a reverse mortgage.

Vacationing here in DE seems to be close to normal, but the sales of vacation/second homes is way off.

Our unemployment is 6.7% here but the unemployment funds are about gone, down to 1.3 million dollars from over 150 million a few years ago. Our state government is almost broke. Unemployment benefits have been extended a couple of times and we have a ton of long term unemployment. One other thing - many of the immigrants who worked in the housing industry are not working - a lot of them are illegals and don't qualify for unemployment because they were working "under the table".

New hiring is hard to gauge because we have a ton of summer employment for the vacation season and that held steady. That being said, many of those summer jobs go to out of state college kids so we have a lot of teen-agers who'd like a summer job that didn't get one this year.

Fast food and restaurants seem to be doing fine.

Contributions to Churches are down and the people assistance ministries are running out of money handling more people than ever.

The Delaware Food Pantry is providing more meals than ever to people in need.

Crop farmers will be in a world of hurt and the corn and soy bean crops have been heavily damaged by drought. That will mean less work at harvest time and less money in the farmer's hands this fall and winter. The farmer's markets and the roadside produce stands are hurting since a lot of their crops were stunted by the drought.

Scranton PA is out of money and a lot of other cities are in trouble...I read recently about three California cities going bankrupt.

The medical business in this area is booming - with an aging population there are tons of patients and a couple of the medical centers have national reprutations, so they also draw patients from quite a ways away.
Since the immigrant population has decreased emergency room demands have slackened reducing the drain on resources caused because the so often don't get paid for the services provided.

I am not a pessimist about the economy but I do think that what the government has been doing since 2008 has just flat been the wrong thing to do and we'd be better off today if it had done nothing. My economic phylosophy is that Government can't fix economic problems the best they can do is get the heck out of the way and let the people work their magic. We folks (businesses and consumers) drive the economy not the government. Whatever the government spends it must first take from the people or create from thin air - both of which are bad.
 
PenMan1 said:
If you look at people eating at restaurants, car sales, and new home sales as economic indicators, be very careful how interpret the data. I am not or never have been a "nay sayer" and always had a positive outlook. BUT the economy here keeps getting worse, daily.

The "people eating at restaurants" indicator is an optical illusion. There appears to be more people eating out only because the number of restaurants is about 60 percent less than in 2008. Fewer restaurants makes the ones still in business look busier. To do you own validation or refusal on this theory, drive by several "strip malls,etc" that servered as homes for restaurants. Count the vacancies that were once filled with restaurants.

Car sales numbers also add quite of sneakiness unless you look closely at the sales Ford, GM, Dodge et al are making money on Government sales and world markets. Americans are buying cheaper imports like Kia and Hundayi at a clip 4 times greater than in 2007.

New home sales are beginning to "bump up" as foreclosures "steal deals" become harder to find. Many of the new homes being sold today have been built for over 20 months and in some cases, the home sale price represents less than the cost of the materials used to build them.

The only "indicators" that really mean anything to me are consumer confidence and unemployment figures from the States. Consumer spend HAS to increase, simply because the price of fuel has added about 25 percent to the cost of shipping products. If you want to see this in action, watch the price of chicken and corn for the next 6 months.

We live in a resort area. When we see people who used to be very rich using coupons and government food debit cards, this speaks volumes to us. I think we are headed I the wrong direction on an unsustainable path and without action by congress to stop the tax increases coming in January will be devestating. WE CAN'T CONTINUE TO BORROW 50 CENTS OF EACH DOLLAR SPENT BY GOVERNMENT-Ask Greece!
Click to expand...
Worse than that look at who they are borrowing from - The Federal Reserve. In short they are doing what is referred to a monetizing the debt which is another way of saying "printing money" - that will show up as inflation if not sooner - later.
 
jd99 said:
Paul in OKC said:
Been trying to hire a machinist for 3 weeks now, not even a nibble. Last two I had had trouble getting to work and/or calling in when missing.
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I've had the same issues, I think ther days of being a "Machinist" (someone that can turn raw material into a part without a computer) are long gone.

All I've gotten is button pushers to apply, for kicks I give them a part off the screw machine, and point to it and ask them if they can set it up (no computer on it all cams) :biggrin:
Click to expand...

Never ran a screw machine, but have seen them run. Pretty amazing machines, actually. Last 2 guys I had each said they could do manual machining. One actually came in and pointed at the manual lathe and said "I can do everything that thing can do". Almost ended the interview right then, but gave him a chance. Did decent, but didn't take long to give him something he had never done on that machine before. Last place I came up with a test piece that any perspective machinist had to make (on a manual). Weeded out a few that way. Oh well.....
 
In my area the economy is still a major struggle. Although the company I work for has held steady for the last 4 years of a 25% or better increase in yearly sales. Even with the unemployment rate so high, we can't keep worker's. Our turnover rate is pretty crazy. I'm not sure if the restaurants or shops are busy, as I don't patrionize them. 99% of my meals are at home and I do most of my shopping over the internet. Most of the news broadcast's are about people getting killed and the lack of jobs in our area.
 
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