The novel coronavirus COVID-19 is without a doubt much much worse than the seasonal flu. According to the data published on the CDC website the mortality rate for the flu in the US is somewhere between 0.04% and 0.15%. The best data that we have available right now for COVID-19 is a crude mortality ratio of 0.77% (this is according to data out of South Korea where testing is most widely available at the moment). Note that the crude mortality ratio is simply the number of fatalities divided by the number of positive tests. While the ratio is probably a false-high because not everyone is being tested (even though testing is pretty widely available in South Korea), you also must consider that only a small fraction of the total cases are listed as completely recovered (333 out of 7869)-- it is likely that some of the existing cases will turn into fatalities. Also note that access to treatments is a major factor in survivability, if hospitals are over-run then mortality rates will rise. Also, current estimates suggest that COVID-19 spreads about as much or as easily as the seasonal Flu. So while the information regarding the seasonal flu is informative, they are two very different animals. If we do nothing to stop or slow the spread of COVID-19 we will expect on the order of 10X the number of deaths as a normal flu season (so somewhere around 200,000 to 520,000) -- obviously it could be more or less, but this is the most reasonable estimate that I have heard. This is in the US and other nations with the best access to medical care. The issue is worldwide and many places will likely fare much worse. Fear and panic in this situation are not helpful, but an honest understanding of what we should expect will create an appropriate level of concern. We also need not be surprised when we start seeing unusual things happening. Be prepared to stay home for extended periods of time. Be prepared to see government imposed social distancing (restrictions on travel, gatherings, school closings, etc). Be prepared to see temporary hospitals in places like arenas, stadiums, school gymnasiums, etc. Be mindful of the risk that this disease poses to vulnerable populations - nursing homes, elderly, those with existing conditions. Don't be surprised if this is with us for while, 6 months or more (maybe several waves over the next few years). An ounce of prevention will be worth a pound of cure.
Much of this is my opinions, so you can do with them what you want. I'll do my best to avoid conversations like this on IAP, we are all getting a steady dose of COVID-19 through other channels. I have resisted a post like this over the past couple of weeks, but it is becoming more clear that this is problem is serious and will need everyone's active involvement to fight back, so I thought it was appropriate to share my thoughts with a group of people that I care about.
