What is the probability that I'll win at least one of the remaining Trivia drawings?

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turbowagon

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In case anyone was curious:

An easy way to compute the chances of winning AT LEAST ONE of the remaining contests, is to compute the chances of winning NONE of the remaining contests, and subtracting that probability from 1.

There are 13 remaining drawings.
2 winners each day.
Assume 120 correct entrants.

The probability of LOSING each drawing is 118/120 or 98.3%

The probability of LOSING all the remaining 13 drawings is: 98.3 ^ 13,
or 80.4%

Therefore, the probability of winning AT LEAST ONE of the remaining contests is 1 - 0.804 = 0.196 or about 20%.

Good luck!
 
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THarvey

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That is assuming you answer all 13 of the remaining questions correctly.

AND

Assuming none of the other 9,800+ members decide to participate. :biggrin:
 
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THarvey

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Looking at it another way... :biggrin:

There are 9,991 IAP members. 9,989 will lose the trivia drawing each day.

The percent of members losing is 99.98%

.9998 ^ 13 = .9974

1 - .9974 = .0026

That would put your chances of winning at 0.26%
:eek:
 

arioux

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WEll my maths are a little different:

28 days
2 giftst a day = 56 gifts for an average of 110 participants so one on two chances
If one on two chances with two gift a day, i should win every day.

Right ?

OK, don't tell i drop out of match school :)
 

THarvey

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Looking at it another way... :biggrin:

There are 9,991 IAP members. 9,989 will lose the trivia drawing each day.

The percent of members losing is 99.98%

.9998 ^ 13 = .9974

1 - .9974 = .0026

That would put your chances of winning at 0.26%
:eek:


With these odds you guys need to go back to your shops and turn pens.

Phunky & I will take care of this silly Trivia contest for you. :rolleyes:
 

65GTMustang

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Obviously I will take your word for it. Math is not my strong point!
Case in point...
I paid $185 to have a silver razor head made....
Does that make any sense?
Perhaps I could send the White House some pictures
Don't they buy Gold Toilet seats, faucets and such? Perhaps they would like a two tone look and add some silver in with my Silver Fusion Razor Head...LOL
 

ed4copies

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WEll my maths are a little different:

28 days
2 giftst a day = 56 gifts for an average of 110 participants so one on two chances
If one on two chances with two gift a day, i should win every day.

Right ?

OK, don't tell i drop out of match school :)


While this may not be mathematically sound, I LIKE these odds!!!!
Play along each day, you got a chance!!!
 

phillywood

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I say that we take pictures like those firemen do for the calandar, but we will do it for the IAP penturners calandar and then see who will win that way..:eek::tongue:
That puts our chances at best to lose. Just imagine instead of fire hoses holding pens in our hands.:smile-big:
 

ctubbs

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HEY LOOK! I WON! If I can win, then anyone can win. The only thing I won was a wonderful, beautiful bride until I won this contest.

Just call me LUCKY!
Charles
 

phillywood

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Phillip what do you put the odds at that most of us go blind just looking at the cover?

Tom, you see as soon as I suggest that we take pictures for the IAp calendar, i scared them of so I won, now I am spared to hold my chest out.:rolleyes::tongue:. You really don't want me to do that it looks scarier than Curtis"s cat hair blank)
 

Smitty37

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Change...

The odds of winning change every day...realistic odds
2 winners/day
140 entrants each day
odds about 69 - 1 against winning each day.
odds remain the same regardless of how many days there are.
10 days left
20 winners
still 140 entrants
odds about 6 to 1 against winning at all
odds change every day
 
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